Every Tuesday I get together with a running group for Turnover Tuesdays. We meet at a local school track to work on our running speed. Usually 20 or 30 people show up for a work out and people break up into smaller running groups based on their pace and the scheduled run. This week was a bit unusual as the scheduled run was "predict your 5k." Everyone gave the organizer a predicted time it would take them to run 5000 meters and then we all started running as a group. Watches were not allowed during the run so the skill was to be able to run at the correct pace to achieve the time predicted after running 5000 meters. The winners were the participants who could most accurately predict their time (regardless of how fast they run).

I predicted at time of 18:28. That would average out to running 5:57 per mile and 89 second per lap around the track.

The run felt great. First off, no bathroom breaks due to my ulcerative colitis, always a victory. The weather was perfect, cold but calm. My speed felt great and my effort was relatively low. I felt strong during each lap and felt like I was running at a pace I could keep up for at least another 5k. I crossed the finish line in 18:41, only 13 seconds slower than my prediction.

That time meant I was running 6:01 mile splits or 90 second laps. My 13 second miss on my prediction meant I was not in contention for the prizes. This event attracted double or triple the normal turnout of turnover Tuesdays and three people were within one second of their predictions!

While I didn't win the contest I was very happy with my speed and associated effort. The figure below is what my Garmin watch measured during the run (so watches weren't banned completely, looking at the watch was banned and I swear I did not look). My speed was very consistent and most importantly my heart rate stayed in the 167 to 171 beats per minute range throughout the run.

I was happy with this heart rate because it is at the top of the lactic threshold heart rate zone (basically the zone that corresponds to my functional threshold pace (FTP)) based on the Faster Road Racing book by Pete Pfitzinger. Pete describes the lactic threshold heart rate zone as being 75 to 88 percent of heart rate reserve (HRR = maximum - resting heart rate). My maximum heart rate is 187 beats per minute. I found this by doing long hill repeats at maximum effort and verified it during the sprint finish of my most recent 10k race. My resting heart rate, measure right after I wake up, is 40 beats per minute. Adding my resting heart rate to 75 and 88 percent of HRR I get my lactic threshold heart rate to be 150 to 169 beats per minute. This gives me hope that my FTP is approaching 6:00 which would get me back on track after my loss of fitness this fall during a UC flare up.