To determine a race time I could get real simple and target the Boston Marathon qualifying time for my age group which is 3 hours and 5 minutes. This works out to 7 minute and 3 second per mile pace. I would really like to achieve this time, but I don't want to limit myself to this pace. Another easy time to target would be 2:59:59 (6:52 / mile). Breaking three hours would be awesome, but once again, I think I can do better.

So how do I calculate the best pace? Well, I think past performance and training are the best indicators of future results. This year I have ran a half marathon in 1:21 and a 10 mile race in just under 60 minutes. There are a plenty of theories and calculations that can be used to estimate pace based on recent results. Let's review some of the methodologies. I will use my last two races as a basis for these calculations.

A First the old school method: double the half marathon time and add 10 minutes. Essentially this adds 23 seconds to your half marathon pace. This method is crude. It is unlikely to be accurate for both a 4:45 / mile half marathoner and a 12:00 / mile half marathoner. 23 seconds is a lot of time to the first person but practically nothing to the second. Using my half marathon PR time from January gives me a marathon time of 2:53:10 (6:36) . Despite my skepticism about the methodology, I kinda like this number.

B-F The next group of predictions are based on my 10 mile race time from April, which establishes my current fitness level. The various calculators use this value to extrapolate to other race distances through formulas and normalization methods. Jack Daniels' uses VDOT as the fitness normalization method, while Age Grading measures your performance relative to the best at your age. These methods give four times surrounding 2:47:00 and a slight outlier time (relative to the rest of this group) of 2:49:22. These feel like very optimistic times and most of the calculations have disclaimers that they assume you are in optimal fitness for the new race distance. I would love to run this quickly but I am worried about starting too fast. I have had experience walking the last 10 miles of a marathon, and I do not want to repeat that nightmare.

G-H The next two calculations rely on two inputs to calculate the marathon pace: race time and training intensity. It needs a 10 km time from four weeks before the marathon and the average mileage in the buildup to the marathon. I estimated both values since I am still eight weeks out from my marathon. I calculated the 10 km time using my 10 mile PR with the McMillan conversion. I estimate my weekly mileage at 60 taking into account mileage covered and anticipated miles. This mileage gives a multiplier that ranges from 4.75 to 4.85 based on the hillrunner table. Combining these inputs gives a marathon estimate ranging from 2:49 on the low side to 2:53 on the high. If I get a chance to run a 10 km four weeks before the marathon I will redo this calculation.

I-J The last calculations use my estimated FTP based on historic performance extrapolated to marathon race day. This calculation takes into account my entire race history and therefore has the most data inputs. Unfortunately none of the prior races are marathons. It is unclear whether the marathon will be within the race baseline. Using this data I calculated two values. The slower time, 2:45, is based on a second order fit to the data. On a positive note this time is near the range of values calculated from the B-F group. Unfortunately it still does not fill me with confidence in its accuracy.The faster time, 2:39, is based on a linear extrapolation, and feels like nothing more than wishful thinking.

I have listed all the estimated race times below. The median of the dataset is 2:47:45 (6:24), and the mean is 2:47:51 (6:24).

Marathon Time (Mile Pace) Calculation Method
A 2:53:10 (6:36) old school calculation using half marathon PR
B 2:46:42 (6:21) Runworks (VDOT) using 10 mile PR
C 2:47:43 (6:24) McMillan Running using 10 mile PR
D 2:47:47 (6:24) Running For Fitness Age Grading using 10 mile PR
E 2:46:01 (6:20) Running For Fitness Riegel Formula using 10 mile PR
F 2:49:22 (6:28) Running For Fitness Cameron Formula using 10 mile PR
G 2:49:49 (6:29) faster hillrunner Jim2 using 10 mile PR
H 2:53:23 (6:37) slower hillrunner Jim2 using 10 mile PR
I 2:39:03 (6:04) Runworks (VDOT) using minimum FTP estimate
J 2:45:29 (6:19) Runworks (VDOT) using minimum FTP estimate

So there we have it. The list starts with a calculation based on a half marathon time and a crude computation, progresses to single input calculations with more complex conversions, on to two input calculations, and finally to extrapolation of my running record.

Which value will serve as the basis for my race pace? I think it is good to use as much data as possible which eliminates table items A-F. My FTP provides the most complete dataset, but it is unproven for converting to the marathon distance. Therefore, I am leaning to the next most rigorous methodology, using my race performance and training intensity to estimate a race time. This method was formulated for the sole purpose of marathon time prediction so I find it that much more trustworthy. It is more conservative than the other predictions, but I have found the other conversions too optimistic (fast) when converting up to longer races (in particular the half marathon from 10 km times).

Baring a change of heart or a warm up race that deviates from my historical performances I will be targeting my first mile in the 6:29 - 6:37 time zone. I will try to split the difference for the first 20 miles. I will plan to give'er hell for the final 10 km, and will celebrate no matter how it turns out!

All the BM data I record is on a 0 to 10 scale. A 5 or 6 is a normal value when I record BM urgency, density, volume, or color. A zero is normal for blood and mucus measurements since it should not be in healthy stools. The number of BMs per day is also derived from the data.

My BMs have stabilized at two to three a day. The density is slightly on the soft side of normal.I think one less trip to the stall would be my ultimate goal, but this is so much better than a couple years ago when five trips were normal. Looking at the ~six months before and after I started the SCD diet I would estimate it has reduced my BMs by one every two days.

My current maximum urgency for a BM in any day is on the high end of normal. The three highest urgency days of the last three months correspond to days where I did not follow the SCD diet (in some cases this may have been the day following the non-SCD meal). Their is a very slight trend up in the max and mean urgency data. This is worrisome because I have been busy. I am putting long hours in at work and I am running a lot of miles to prepare for the Portland Marathon this October. Both these things add a level of stress although the running also helps diffuse it. Getting enough sleep while being busy is my biggest concern. Nothing impacts my GI health more than a good night's sleep. When I get up early to run or stay at work late to wrap up a project I inevitably impact my sleep patterns. This is an area that I need to be more focused on in the future.

The final figures show that there is no blood in my stools although occasionally I see mucus. The color is slightly dark because I take iron pills, and the volume is stable (color and volume figures not shown).

So thats about it. The data remains good and I have been able to stay off UC medications.I will try to update soon on how I currently feel and how the marathon training is progressing. It's about time to check my fitness in a tune up race and target a marathon time...

I knew it was going to be tough sticking to the SCD diet while traveling. I packed a big bag of assorted raw nuts and dried cranberries (a staple snack), a handful of Lara Bars, and hoped for the best. I wanted to stick to the diet as close as possible before the race to make make sure my body didn't have any adverse reactions on race morning. Things didn't go quite to plan. We had Ethiopian the first night (illegal injera bread) followed by a potato side dish the night before the race. I decided to risk it in both circumstances because I didn't want to feel starved leading into the race. Luckily everything was good on race morning.

April 12th, the morning of the race, the weather was beautiful. Temperatures were in the high 40s and the sun was shining. The air was just the right level of crisp. I could not have asked for anything better. I road the Metro to the start line. I got there a little too early so I spent my time determining the ideal minute to use the bathroom, take off my warm clothing, drop off my bag, and head to the start line. It all was successful.

Here is running-with-ulcerative-colitis pro tip. Two hours before a race pop two Imodium tablets. Nervous energy will make sure you unload everything in your system, but the pills will prevent any unwanted urgency ten minutes along the course. Of course, I am not a medical doctor, so please consult your doctor before taking any of my advice.

While in the corrals 15 minutes before the race the announcer on the loud speaker informed the runners of an accident on the course that required the race to be rerouted. The race would be less than 10 miles! It was a big blow to my psyche. I was doing this race solely to break one hour in time. I was thinking that no matter how fast I run, there will be no official way to prove whether I could have run a sub-one hour 10 miler. I felt my internal drive dropping, but I also realized that this could be big trouble. I stopped my train of thought and instead focused on the beautiful location I was at (the foot of the Washington monument on the nation mall) and how I am in the best shape of my life but needed to prove it to myself.

Minutes before the gun the corral gates dropped and runners elbowed their way to the front. Based on previous finish times I estimated that I should finish in the top 200. Unfortunately I let my position slip and found myself behind roughly four or five hundred racers. This proved costly in the opening mile. The initial pace felt slow, but there was not much room to maneuver around the field. I started sneaking up the edges of the racers while at the same time trying to run the shortest course possible.

I hit the first mile marker with my watch showing 6:20. I was not happy, but I also didn't want to put in a sudden burst to try to make up the time as I was still in heavy congestion and did't know exactly the pace I could sustain for the remaining 8+ miles. So I kept to form slowly moving my way through the field. The second mile features a run across the memorial bridge and a big circle around a round-a-bout. I was still passing people so I couldn't stay on the inside of the round-a-bout. Unfortunately this forced me to make the course longer than needed. On the return trip across the bridge I finely felt comfortable with the pace of runners around me and I began to settle in. I focused on my running lines and picked off runners when possible.

In retrospect, it is always nice passing people. You see someone ahead of you and think about slowly overtaking them. Then you find another, and another... At mile three I got passed. I think that was the only time that it happened.

After escaping the masses, my pace settled into form. At 1.53 miles I began running sub-six minute miles (according to my Garmin), and I didn't let up on the pace the rest of the way (pace shown in gray on the figure).

Soon I was on East Potomac Park, then at Hains point, my pace was still great! I was finally getting pushed onward by the runners around me and found myself in a small pack charging to the finish. During the last mile there is a good sized hill that caused some serious pain. At the top of the hill with about 200 meters to go I found some untapped energy and put in a burst to pass one more runner and sprint across the finish line. I stopped my watch not knowing the official distance or whether I was able to drop down to sub-six minute miles for the race.

My watch showed 9.50 miles and 5 minute and 54 second miles, but I knew not to trust the pace since I did not run the shortest course and since there is often GPS error. I ran the numbers and figured out that as long as the race was 9.35 miles I would have accomplished my pace goal.

Early the next morning the results were in. The race distance was 9.39 miles! I was just under 6 minutes per mile and was incredibly happy.

So what is next? My next major race will be the Portland Marathon on October 4th. I have a full summer to prepare. I have added the 10-miler results to my run tracker below (discussed in detail on previous posts) and have began to think about marathon goals.

The marathon is a different beast and I don't think I can rely on my FTP race paces to accurately calculate my goal marathon pace. For now I am aiming for sub-3 hours and a Boston Qualifying time. Further refinement of that time will have to wait until I have a better idea how I can run at long distances.